{"id":2886,"date":"2020-01-21T13:00:27","date_gmt":"2020-01-21T18:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=2886"},"modified":"2023-01-23T12:01:47","modified_gmt":"2023-01-23T17:01:47","slug":"best-stock-breakouts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/best-stock-breakouts\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Basing Patterns: How to Find Top Stocks to Buy BEFORE They Break Out"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stock breakouts are about more than simply buying stocks that are trading at new highs.&nbsp;In order for a breakout to be valid and without a high risk of failure, <strong>a stock must first possess a valid base of consolidation on its chart pattern.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investors.com\/ibd-university\/how-to-buy\/bases-overview-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.investors.com\/ibd-university\/how-to-buy\/bases-overview-1\/\" data-schema-attribute=\"about\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">base<\/a> is crucial to an uptrend, as the stock or ETF builds a strong foundation to launch the next advance. Before a stock can launch a big price run up, it must first have a solid base pattern to build upon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It&#8217;s sort of like the foundation for a house;<\/strong> if it&#8217;s not solid, the levels above can become unstable. For stocks, base patterns serve as that foundation. They occur when a stock&#8217;s price falls, then consolidates over a series of weeks or months. This leads to what is known as a &#8220;buy setup.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bases typically form <em>after<\/em> a stock\/ETF has already experienced a substantial price increase of at least 30%. That uptrend is important because it shows the stock has already built up a track record of price growth, and has gained support from big institutional investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this article, we will show you how to spot the two top &#8220;basing&#8221; chart patterns that precede the best breakout buy setups:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em><strong>Cup With Handle (Deep Correction)<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>Flat Base Consolidation (Shallow Correction)<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Study the following chart patterns closely, as they will enable you to develop your eye and eventually read stock charts like a pro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/best-stock-breakouts\/#How_To_Identify_A_%E2%80%9CCup_and_Handle%E2%80%9D_Chart_Pattern\" >How To Identify A &#8220;Cup and Handle&#8221; Chart Pattern<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/best-stock-breakouts\/#Spotting_A_Flat_Base_Consolidation\" >Spotting A Flat Base Consolidation<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/best-stock-breakouts\/#Bullish_Confirmation_Through_Tightening_Price_Action\" >Bullish Confirmation Through Tightening Price Action<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_To_Identify_A_%E2%80%9CCup_and_Handle%E2%80%9D_Chart_Pattern\"><\/span>How To Identify A &#8220;Cup and Handle&#8221; Chart Pattern<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Following are the technical characteristics of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/cupandhandle.asp#:~:text=A%20cup%20and%20handle%20is,spot%20opportunities%20to%20go%20long.\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/cupandhandle.asp#:~:text=A%20cup%20and%20handle%20is,spot%20opportunities%20to%20go%20long.\" data-schema-attribute=\"mentions\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cup and handle pattern<\/a>, along with an actual visual example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The chart pattern must form within an existing uptrend, and stock must be at least&nbsp;30-40% off the lows. This rule is very important. Do not go looking for cup and handle patterns with stocks trading at or near 52-week lows! The best cup and handle patterns form near 52-week highs. Stocks that are breaking out to new all time highs are ideal because they lack overhead resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 50-day moving average should be above the 200-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average should have already been&nbsp;trending higher for at least a few months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The base typically forms on a <strong>pullback of 20-35% off the highs<\/strong>&nbsp;(deep correction), and is at least seven weeks in length.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As the base rounds out and the price returns back above the 50-day moving average and holds,&nbsp;be on the lookout for the &#8220;handle&#8221; to form. The handle usually forms 5-10% below the highs of the left side of the pattern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The handle itself should drift lower, and is typically 5-10% or so in width. Handles that retrace more than 15% are too volatile and prone to failure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Handles should be at least 5 days in length and <em>not<\/em> form below the 50-day moving average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Putting it all together, this chart of <strong>LinkedIn ($LNKD)<\/strong> shows a valid cup and handle chart pattern, based on the technical criteria above:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/LNKD.png\" alt=\"cup and handle of $LNKD\" class=\"wp-image-2887\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/LNKD-110x82.png 110w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/LNKD-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On the chart above, notice the 200-day moving average (orange line) is in a clear uptrend. The 50-day moving average (teal line) is above the 200-day moving average, and the 20-day exponential moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the 20-day exponential moving average is above the 50-day moving average, and the price action is above both averages, it is the ideal time for a handle to form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key to the handle is that price action should drift lower to shake out the &#8220;weak hands.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The buy point for this type of swing trade setup is a breakout above the high of the handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, over the years, we have learned to establish partial position size at or near the lows of a handle, and add to the position on the breakout above the high of the handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This enables us to lower our average cost and provides a better reward to risk ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out our <a href=\"\/blog\/cup-and-handle-pattern\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">simple 10-step checklist<\/a> to properly identify and trade the cup and handle chart pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"580\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/4966a6ff.sibforms.com\/serve\/MUIFAOyl4S5Qdajs7q3LemJKudDbMHB24p2SAorKuWWuauy3e1eFPtLgTh5BoPCh3XzIz3rZE_YyIqvc9IEl_xMkRg3MTlG0Zn5eqY3J2eKMjOE-jPuS43ZXewKssUaGt1kllR56wV2u1lBXoYfKSzEgeeTjLyjdSao87VmqsbDtgcy4jNwHMSzf0Rl346rIoBjtZwf-DX0V6tbn\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"auto\" allowfullscreen style=\"display: block;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;max-width: 100%;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Spotting_A_Flat_Base_Consolidation\"><\/span>Spotting A Flat Base Consolidation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A flat base consolidation is a shallow price correction that should possess the following characteristics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As with the cup and handle type pattern, a<strong> flat base consolidation must form within an existing uptrend.<\/strong> Typically, it will form after a breakout from a deeper correction (such as a cup and handle).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The best way to identify a flat base is by using the <em>weekly <\/em>chart timeframe. The majority of the base should form above the rising 10-week moving average (or 50-day moving average on daily chart).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 10-week moving average should be trading well above the 40-week moving average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A flat base should be <em>at least 5 weeks in length.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Flat bases usually correct <em>no more than 15% off the highs<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The following chart of <strong>Pharmacyclics ($PCYC)<\/strong> illustrates what a flat base consolidation should look like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/PCYC.png\" alt=\"Flat base pattern in $PCYC\" class=\"wp-image-2888\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/PCYC-110x82.png 110w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/PCYC-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the weekly chart above is a great example of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investors.com\/how-to-invest\/investors-corner\/when-to-buy-the-basics-of-a-flat-base-a-super-growth-stock-pattern\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.investors.com\/how-to-invest\/investors-corner\/when-to-buy-the-basics-of-a-flat-base-a-super-growth-stock-pattern\/\" data-schema-attribute=\"mentions\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">flat base<\/a> consolidation, the pullback was just a bit over 15% at 17%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, a flat base should form around 10-15% off the highs, but 16-18% is okay, especially if the stock is volatile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the pattern is 25% wide, it is probably&nbsp;<em>not<\/em>&nbsp;a flat base. Please just use common sense with these rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also on the chart of $PCYC, notice the entire base finds support at the rising 10-week moving average, which is a very bullish sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, the 10-week moving average is well above the 40-week moving average, and both indicators are in a clear uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>buy point of a flat base is on a breakout above the highs of the chart pattern.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As with cup and handle patterns, we usually try to establish partial size before the breakout if possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bullish_Confirmation_Through_Tightening_Price_Action\"><\/span>Bullish Confirmation Through Tightening Price Action<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When finding bullish stock chart patterns, it is crucial to look for a tightening of the price action on the right hand side of the base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left hand side is the initial drop off the highs, where the price action cracks and becomes wide and loose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the first few weeks, the price action is volatile and there can be quite a bit of selling. But after a few weeks of bottoming action, the stock begins to settle down and push higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the majority of price action is above the 50-day moving average, and the 20-day exponential moving average is above the 50-day moving average, this is when the stock should begin to tighten up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following daily chart of <strong>Tesaro ($TSRO)<\/strong> clearly shows a tightening of the right hand side of the basing pattern:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/TSRO.png\" alt=\"TSRO chart pattern basing\" class=\"wp-image-2889\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/TSRO-110x82.png 110w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/TSRO-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On the chart above, the initial decline off the highs (around $20) produced volatile price action for several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, notice the price action never really broke below the 50-day moving average for more than a few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In early January 2013, the price action tightened up. By later in the same month, an extremely tight range develops above the 20-day exponential moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a classic snapshot of<strong> tightening price action, which is something we always look for.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most profitable stock picks in our&nbsp;<strong><a title=\"Learn More About The Wagner Daily Newsletter\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">swing trade alerts service<\/a><\/strong> nearly always possess the above qualities, so the proverbial proof is in the pudding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock breakouts are about more than simply buying stocks that are trading at new highs.&nbsp;In order for a breakout to be valid and without a high risk of failure, a stock must first possess a valid base of consolidation on its chart pattern. A base is crucial to an uptrend, as the stock or ETF [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2886"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2886\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15630,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2886\/revisions\/15630"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}