May 20, 2022

Nasdaq 100 futures are trading higher this morning, bouncing off support of the prior low.  

In the short-term, the Nasdaq could see a tradeable bounce before running into resistance of the prior swing high, downtrend line, and 20-day exponential moving average:

New short setups are not ideal here, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 holding the prior swing low.  

If the bounce continues higher in the near-term, then we will look to short individual names or go long $SQQQ (inverse ETF) closer to the 20-day EMA in the Nasdaq 100.

The potential for a short-term bounce creates an opportunity for aggressive traders to add some long exposure for a quick pop.  

Investors/intermediate-term traders should stay away from the long side until there is more evidence of a market bottom, which would include the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite reclaiming the 20-day EMA.

In the Wagner Daily stock portfolio, we alerted members that we were buying $AFRM yesterday for a short-term swing.

$AFRM punched back through the breakout pivot after moving out above a tight consolidation:

We like the short-term relative strength in $AFRM, with its relative strength line moving higher while the price has been mostly sideways.

The RS line is moving ahead of the price, which is bullish.   

The current trade plan is to play for a quick pop and sell into strength, as market conditions are not yet ideal for intermediate-term swings.

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The post [stocks] Market Minutes – Low-Risk Buy Setup in $AFRM appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

May 19, 2022

Stocks took a beating yesterday, as the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) tumbled 5% lower.

However, the Nasdaq held above last week’s lows and is still in short-term bounce mode.

Despite yesterday’s sell-off, we noticed short-term relative strength and leadership in a handful of leading stocks.

$RBLX, $AFRM, and $ARKK were each mentioned in the chatroom yesterday as stocks that held within their prior day’s trading ranges, despite broad-based selling. 

Today, the Nasdaq 100 has been oscillating near the break-even level, BUT leading growth stocks with relative strength are showing big gains today.

$RBLX, $AFRM, and $ARKK, for example, are each showing a gain of approx. +4% today. 

As we explained to Wagner Daily PRO members in the Swing Trader chatroom, stocks that show relative strength by holding solid when the indices fall are the first to zoom higher when the broad market bounces.

As such, we bought $AFRM in the portfolio today and are targeting several other stocks with relative strength for potential buy entry on a pullback.

The major indices remain in a downtrend, but the key is tracking the performance of leading stocks, rather than the major indices.

For now, we are seeing an increasing number of stocks leading the way higher.

We remain vigilant, but are cautiously scanning the market for new potential buy entries for short-term swing trade entry.

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The post [stocks] Market Minutes – Relative Strength Stocks in a Weak Market appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

May 18, 2022

Tuesday’s rally produced a follow-through day buy signal in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, as both indices gained more than +1.5% on increasing volume.

Although market conditions are not ideal for our style of trading (breakouts in growth stocks), it looks like stocks want to push higher in the short-term.  

Due to the lack of quality buy setups near 52-week highs, our focus now shifts to buying stocks that are bouncing from oversold levels and could run 20-30% or more within the next week or two.

One example of this is $AFRM, which recently gapped off the lows on big volume:

The high volume gap up closed above the 8-day ema and in the upper half of the day’s range.  

This was followed by two more days of tight consolidation action above the 8-day ema on lighter volume.

Now, we are stalking $AFRM for short-term swing trade entry to take advantage of the current bounce in the major averages.

Wagner Daily members should note our exact buy trigger and stop price in the Watchlist section of today’s report.

Although we are selectively scanning for new buy entries, remember that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still below their declining 20-day exponential moving averages on the daily chart. 

Be vigilant and proactive with regard to any new short-term buy entries.

SIGN UP NOW to receive trade alerts with our exact entry and stop prices, portfolio access, and complete market analysis. Wagner Daily PRO also provides you with access to your live Swing Trader Chat. If you enjoy this free service, please share with a friend.

The post [stocks] Market Minutes – Follow-through Day in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

May 17, 2022

Day 3 of a new rally attempt in the stock market produced an inside day on lighter volume, right at resistance of the 8-day ema in the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ):  

If $QQQ moves above the two-day high, it could lead to a test of next resistance at the declining 20-day EMA.  

On the chart above, notice how the 20-day EMA has perfectly acted as resistance on previous bounces within the current downtrend.

Although stocks are in short-term bounce mode, the Nasdaq 100 remains firmly in a downtrend UNLESS the index convincingly reclaims support of its 20-day EMA on higher volume.

Regardless, we trade what we see–not what we think!

As such, we are now stalking $SQQQ (Nasdaq 100 short ETF) for a low-risk entry point on a bounce into strength.

We will send Wagner Daily members an alert with our exact entry and stop prices if we see an ideal entry point today.

Start your Wagner Daily membership to receive trade alerts with our exact entry and stop prices, portfolio access, and complete market analysis. The Wagner Daily PRO also provides you with access to your live Swing Trader Chat. If you enjoy this free service, please share with a friend.

The post [stocks] Market Minutes – Looking for $QQQ Short Entry on the Bounce appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

May 16, 2022

In last Friday’s MMM report, we said the Nasdaq bears could be losing control in the short-term. 

We also said that stocks could enter bounce mode if the major indices hold above Thursday’s closing prices.

Stocks indeed finished Friday’s session with solid gains, thereby confirming the previous day’s bullish reversal pattern.

However, given the vicious sell-off after breaking below major support levels, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now have an abundance of overhead supply and resistance levels to contend with.

As such, we view the current bounce as an opportunity to look for new, lower-risk entry points for new short setups (and/or buying inverse ETFs).

If the Nasdaq can bounce into the 12,000 area, it will find plenty of resistance from a short-term term downtrend line and the 20-day EMA:

If we spot any ideal short entries in today’s session, we will send a trade alert to Wagner Daily members with our exact trigger and stop prices.

Until the market proves otherwise, we view any bounce as an opportunity to sel short–but only IF low-risk entry points emerge in weak stocks/ETFs.  

As always, remember to trade what you see, not what you think!

Start your Wagner Daily membership to receive trade alerts with our exact entry and stop prices, portfolio access, and complete market analysis. The Wagner Daily PRO also provides you with access to your live Swing Trader Chat. If you enjoy this free service, please share with a friend.

The post [stocks] Market Minutes – Nasdaq Relief Rally Mode appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.