The Wagner Daily – January 13, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Buy (based on S&P 500 reclaiming the 20-day EMA)  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, bought $TGLS.

Commentary: 

Note that the US markets will be closed on Monday, January 16. The Wagner Daily will not be published Sunday night but will return Monday night for Tuesday’s session. Enjoy the long weekend!

Broad-based averages continue to push higher fueled by short covering.

The S&P 500 futures contract has rallied into resistance of the 200-day MA and downtrend line.  There is quite a bit of support just above 3,900 from a few moving averages.

Nasdaq 100 futures just reclaimed its 50-day MA, but has room to run before hitting downtrend line resistance. Support is from the rising 8 and 20-day EMAs (11,275ish)

Per intraday alert, $TGLS was added to the model portfolio on a breakout above $32. We liked the strong rally from the gap up with bullish price and volume action. The consolidation was tight with volume drying up.

The weekly chart is sitting just below all-time highs.

There is one new setup for Friday’s session in $JD.

We like the tight action on the daily chart with the 8-day EMA catching up. Our buy entry is over the two-day high with a stop below the 20-day EMA to allow for some wiggle room. One could also use the current two-day low as a stop.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – $DE $PEN $PODD $PDD $SUPN $AMBA
• Shorts –  

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – $TGLS Poised for Breakout to All-time High appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 12, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Buy (based on S&P 500 reclaiming the 20-day EMA)  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

There are no new official setups ahead of Thursday morning’s CPI report at 8:30 am EST.  

The daily chart of the S&P 500 futures contract has run into the resistance of the 200-day MA and is just below the  longer-term downtrend line.  

Breadth has improved during the current rally with the number of stocks setting new 52-week highs outpacing 52-week lows for the seventh day in a row. 

We are monitoring a few charts below for a buy entry.  These setups are not official.  

Watching for a pullback to the 8-day EMA.

$PTEN cleared its downtrend line and is finding support at the rising 8 and 20-day EMAs. Look for a move over the three-day high as the trigger which would also reclaim the 50-day MA.

Monitoring $PODD for a possible downtrend line break this week or next.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs –  $TGLS $JD $MRNA $MNST (reversal) $MGNI $BAND 
• Shorts –  

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – $PTEN setting up for swing trade entry appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 11, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

Tuesday’s bullish response to the prior day’s bearish reversal is a positive sign for the market in the short term. 

Note that Thursday’s CPI  report (8:30 am)  could have an impact on the market. 

$SPY daily chart has held up well and is now back above its 50-day MA with room to run up to the 200-day MA.

Semiconductor ETF $SMH has rallied into the 200-day moving average and looks to be forming its first base after a decent thrust off the lows.  

$AEHR is one of the strongest acting semis after an explosive three-day rally off the lows.  While we can’t do much with this sort of action in the short term but it is a must-watch for a dry up in volatility.

$TTC could be in play if it can push through the $116 buy point.  This is not an official setup. 

In the short term, the market looks to be headed higher.  There is a ton of resistance above for most broad-based averages, so the upside is limited.  There isn’t enough bullish evidence out there to suggest the current rally is the beginning of a new bull market.  That could change.  

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs –  $TGLS $JD  $TTC 
• Shorts –  

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Swing Trading Opportunity: The Rise of $AEHR in the Semi Industry appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 10, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.
• $UTHR removed from the watchlist.

Commentary: 

Broad market averages closed with back-to-back reversal candles, as Friday’s bullish reversal gave way to Monday’s bearish reversal.  

Monday’s action creates a potential lower high in most broad-based averages.

$SPY lower high at the 50-day MA, with the 200-day MA just above. Market conditions are tricky here, as the S&P is close to its 50-day MA and could just chop around for a few weeks to create a base with a higher low in place since the October low.

$QQQ potential lower high just below the 50-day MA.

$S&P 400 is working on a second lower high into a short-term downtrend line.

Again, these charts will have to be monitored daily for confirmation of a bullish or bearish scenario playing out.

$UTHR did not trigger on Monday and is removed from our watchlist. There are no new setups for Tuesday, but we are monitoring $TITN for a pullback entry.

$TITN gapped up on big volume and has so far held the gap up day low and 20-day EMA minus a shakeout week. Price cleared the downtrend line and is pushing higher. Let’s see if Monday’s reversal leads to a 2-3 day pullback and a touch of 20ema.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching $FIVE TGLS $JD $APO $RMBS $TEX $TITN $MOD $ELF
• Shorts – $AAPL $ABNB $TDOC $DDOG $NET $CRWD $ZM

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Stock Watch: $TITN’s Upward Momentum and Potential for a Pullback appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 9, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

The market closed out last week’s trading on a positive note, with most broad market averages defending recent lows and reversing higher on a pick-up in volume.  

Let’s see if these indices can follow-through to the upside.  

S&P Midcap 400 closed above all major moving averages but will need to hold. 

The S&P 500 reclaimed its 20-day ema but is just below the 50-day ma.  Not pictured below is the Nasdaq 100, which reclaimed its 8-day ema but remains below a declining 20-day ema.    

Value stocks continue to outperform growth.

The two images below are weekly ratio charts. 

The first is of $IJJ (midcap value) divided by $IWP (midcap growth).  In the tradingview charting platform, the symbol is IJJ/IWP.   The first symbol is value and if it is leading it will be in an uptrend.  If value is lagging, it will trend lower.   

Midcap value is outperforming.  

As is small cap value.

With the broad-based averages reversing higher last Friday, we are leaning towards the market pushing higher this week.

Based on the charts above and our weekend scans, value, biotech, and a few semiconductors are in play.  

There is one new official setup for Monday in $UTHR.  The entry is based on last week’s touch of the rising 10-week moving average which is labeled on the daily chart below.  We have a buy stop to enter near Friday’s close, basically trying to establish a position as close to the 10-week MA as possible. 

Other stocks potentially in play on strength or weakness:

$FIVE $PEN $PCVX $TGLS $JD $SMCI $BIDU $DXCM $APO $RMBS $TEX $TITN $APO $MOD $NBIX

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – see above 
• Shorts –  

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Understanding the Trend of $IJJ/$IWP Ratio Chart appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 6, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ closed below support for the second time in two weeks.  In late December, the close below support was a one day shakeout.  Given that the price action has failed to reclaim the declining 8-day EMA,  the odds are favorable for a test of the October low.  

The S&P 500 is still holding support at 3,800 but is unable to close above the declining 8-day EMA and hold.    

Energy stocks are struggling to hold on to leadership status.  $XLE has yet to reclaim its downtrend line or the 50-day MA.  

If big cap leadership within the sector such as $SLB fails to hold up then energy could see some heavy selling during the first half of 2023.

There are no new setups for Friday.   

On the short side, $ABNB and $MTCH are bouncing into the declining 20-day EMAs after a false breakdown beneath the lows of the base.

Both are potentially in play on the short side within the next few days. 

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching $SLB $TDW $BOX $CPRX  
• Shorts – watching $ABNB $MTCH

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Swing Trading the Short Side: $ABNB and $MTCH’s Bounce into Declining 20-day EMAs appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 5, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

The S&P Midcap 400 is the leading broad-based index and is up against all major moving averages.

Looking for the price action to punch through resistance and hold as a sign of strength.  A failed attempt to recapture the moving averages could lead to a sharp reversal lower.

The S&P 500 closed with an inside day on Wednesday following Tuesday’s outside day. Waiting for a break in either direction to determine the next swing.

$QQQ is leading to the downside and has yet to reclaim its 8-day EMA.

There are no new official setups for Thursday. However, if anything catches our eye intraday we will send an alert.

In yesterday’s report, we discussed $NBIX as a potential buy over the high of Tuesday’s reversal candle. The setup triggered and is still in play with a stop beneath Tuesday’s low. This is not an official setup.

$CPRX is in pullback mode after breaking out from its last consolidation. Although not an official setup, could be in play on strength above $19 or on weakness if there is some sort of dip below the 20-day EMA that leads to a bullish reversal candle.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – $DE $CAT $HAL $SLB $TDW $BOX $MEDP $BCOR
• Shorts –

Add

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Trading $CPRX: Navigating Breakout and Pullback Modes appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 4, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, sold $SMCI just below breakeven for a very small loss due to the lack of follow-through from our entry and weak market conditions.

Commentary: 

Tuesday’s failed gap up led to more chop, as stocks reversed lower in the morning but failed to follow through to the downside in the afternoon.

The S&P Midcap 400 (a leading index) stalled at resistance from the 50 and 200-day MAs. We continue to monitor the daily chart for clues such as a close above the 200-day MA that holds.

Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ – Can the price reclaim the 8-day EMA? There is also resistance just above from the declining 20-day EMA.

Per the intraday alert, sold $SMCI just below breakeven for a very small loss and we are now back to a 100% cash position.

Several stocks on our internal watchlist were hit hard on Tuesday, with names like $FOUR and $TMDX both down at least -6%.

There are no new official setups for Wednesday’s session.

On the long side (just monitoring), $NBIX could be in play over the high of Tuesday’s reversal candle off the 50-day MA.

$DAL is one to watch on the short side after stalling at resistance from the 20-day EMA and downtrend line. A move

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching  $SMCI  $NBIX $CAT $CPRX
• Shorts – $DAL – short bounce into 8-10 day MA (if there is one).

Add

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – $NBIX: A Potential Long-Term Investment Opportunity appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – January 3, 2023

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

The S&P 500 remains range-bound below all key moving averages with the 20-day EMA and 50-day MA as resistance.  Even if the S&P is to push higher from here, it will be tough to trust any move until there is a big pick-up in buying interest.  

We are also monitoring S&P 400 ETF $MDY for a close above resistance at $450.  

The Nasdaq Composite closed off the lows of the week and may see a bounce.  Tough to short stocks within the Nasdaq at current levels.  

We continue to monitor a handful of setups that are showing relative strength to the broad-based averages.

Below are a few unofficial setups from our internal watchlist. 

After clearing its downtrend line, $SLB is sitting in a tight range above the 8, 20, and 50-day MAs.

$HALO is on week 4 of a flat base pattern after breaking out from a cup with handle pattern in November.  The high of last Friday’s reversal candle can serve as a buy entry for aggressive traders.  This is not an official setup.

$MEDP is another top-rated growth stock on our list.  Last week’s false breakout above the swing high led to another test of the 50-day MA, which held.  Any pullback near the 50-day MA can be bought with small size for aggressive traders.  

$CPRX has pulled back to the range high while holding above the 8-day EMA.  Potentially in play unofficially on a downtrend line break.  

Our game plan is to lay low during the first few days of 2023.  Although we have a few unofficial setups posted above, there is nothing wrong with sitting mostly in cash.    

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching the charts above as well as $SMCI $HAL $NBIX $PI $CAT $BOX
• Shorts –

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – $HALO: A Stock to Watch for Aggressive Traders After Breaking Out from a Cup with Handle appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.

The Wagner Daily – December 30, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

Subscribe now for your access to the best stocks for swing trading, proven Morpheus stock trading strategy, and market timing model with a 20-year track record.

Just drop us a comment with any questions or comments–we’d love to hear from you!

The Wagner Daily – December 30, 2022
Proven swing trading strategy, top ETF & stock picks, and market timing model…since 2002

MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of Dec. 15) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

Just a reminder, US markets will be closed next Monday, January 2.  The Wagner Daily will not be published on Sunday night but will return Monday night (Jan. 2) for Tuesday’s session.  

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Stock market averages reversed higher with most closing above the prior day’s high and reclaiming all of Wednesday’s losses.  

Given the time of year and lack of volume, it’s tough to put money to work based on Thursday’s reversal.  Our short-term plan is to sit mostly in cash and see what the new year brings.  

The S&P 500 is back above 3,800 but still has the 20 and 50-day MAs above as resistance.  

The S&P Midcap 400 has shown relative strength in the last few months and is the only broad-based index near its 200-day MA. A move through the big resistance level on the chart below would definitely grab our attention.

As mentioned above, our plan is to lay low during the next few days. However, for those looking to add exposure, here are a few setups to monitor:

These setups are not official.

Oil and gas stocks have held up well after a solid move up. $HAL and $SLB are two of the better-looking charts in the area.

Solar stock $FSLR closed below the 50-day MA but could be just a shakeout if the price can reclaim the 50-day MA within the next few days.

If $SMCI doesn’t move much on Friday, then it will likely close with an inside week, where the high and low of this week is within the prior week’s trading range. A move through the inside week high next week could generate some buying interest.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching the charts above plus $BABA – downtrend line break, $BMRN – downtrend line break after pullback to 20ema,
• Shorts – $LULU

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

Start my Wagner Daily membership now to start receiving winning Morpheus stock trade signals, including a stock portfolio you can easily follow. The Wagner Daily PRO includes live swing trader room for daily, real-time trade ideas and powerful stock trading education.

The post The Wagner Daily – Oil and Gas Stocks on the Rise: A Closer Look at $HAL and $SLB Charts appeared first on Swing Trading Blog | Trading Strategy Articles | Trading Tips.